1. Tokyo Metropolitan Area Condominium Market – February 2025

• Sales Volume: New condominium sales in the Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba) fell 2.4% year-on-year to 1,288 units, primarily due to a slowdown in Tokyo’s 23 wards.

• Prices: Despite fewer units sold, the average price per condo rose 11.5% to 79.43 million yen, and the price per square meter rose 12.1% to 1.215 million yen.

• Contract Rate: The first-month contract rate was 69.7%, considered healthy (above 70% outside Tokyo’s 23 wards).

• Stock: Unsold inventory stood at 6,238 units.

• High-rises: Sales of high-rise condos (20+ floors) were strong, with an 83% contract rate, much higher than last year.

Notable Trends by Area (Feb 2025):

• Tokyo 23 wards: Lower sales and weaker demand (contract rate: 61.3%).

• Saitama: Prices nearly doubled, driven by redevelopment and demand from wealthy dual-income households.

• Overall: Luxury condos ("億ション" = over 100 million yen) are selling well, helped by high-income households and foreign buyers (notably Chinese investors).

2. National Housing Starts – April 2025

• Overall Market: New residential construction plunged 26.6% year-on-year due to fewer custom homes, rental properties, and condos.

• Seasonally Adjusted: Annualized housing starts dropped 42% month-on-month, reflecting a severe market contraction.

• Causes: Rising construction and living costs due to inflation have pushed consumers away from home buying. Public frustration is growing as government policy fails to ease burdens.

Details by Segment:

• Custom-built homes: Down 23.7%

• Rental housing: Down 27.9%

• Condominiums: Down 36.9%

• For-sale houses: Down 22.8%

By Region (April 2025):

• Greater Tokyo: Total starts down 22.6%, especially condos down 59.1%

• Chubu, Kinki, and other regions also recorded steep declines.

3. Tokyo Metro Area Condominium Market – April 2025

Despite the broader downturn in housing construction, condo sales in the Tokyo area increased slightly for the first time since October 2024, thanks largely to strong demand in Chiba, which saw a 359% increase.

• Total Sales: 1,006 units (+3.5% YoY)

• Contract Rate: 66.3% (good but down from March)

• Average Price: 69.99 million yen, down 8.7% YoY

• Price per m²: 1.048 million yen, down 15.6% YoY

By Area (April 2025):

• Tokyo 23 wards: Sales fell 46.7%, contract rate only 55.5%

• Chiba: Strong performance, high contract rate of 84.7%

• Kanagawa and Saitama also saw increases in sales and moderate price growth

4. Summary of Market Dynamics in 2025 (So Far)

• Prices Up, Volume Down: Condo prices have generally risen despite lower sales volumes, especially in areas with high redevelopment or demand from wealthy buyers.

• Supply Constraints: Fewer homes are being built nationwide, due to rising material and labor costs and reduced buyer affordability.

• Luxury Market Resilient: High-end condos continue to sell well due to increasing wealth among high-income earners and dual-income couples.

• Foreign Buyers Active: Wealthy foreign investors, particularly Chinese, are contributing to high-end condo demand.

• Regional Divergence: Central Tokyo is underperforming, while suburban areas like Saitama and Chiba are seeing robust growth due to better affordability and redevelopment.

Outlook

• May 2025 condo launches are forecast at around 1,500 units, roughly flat compared to past years.

• The overall housing market is expected to remain cautious, with inflation and affordability being key challenges.

• Developers are carefully adjusting prices upward, watching how far the market can accept rising costs, especially in high-end segments.

In our previous article, we pointed out that Japan's population declining. Based on the research of Japanese government, between 2010-2015, 190 communities disappeared in Japan. 19% the whole community in the country is expected to be gone by 2050.

In this article, we explain about the housing price in Japan, useful tips and how to find good properties in Japan.

Population Decline Does Not Mean the Death of the Real Estate Market – Japan’s Quiet Opportunity

Japan’s declining population may seem like a crisis at first glance, but when it comes to real estate, it opens up a unique window of opportunity—especially for long-term residents and savvy investors.

As of mid-2025, the increase in vacant houses (空き家, akiya) is reshaping the market across Japan. Both suburban and urban areas—even central parts of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Osaka, Kyoto, Saitama, Hyogo, and Fukuoka—are seeing a noticeable downward pressure on land and housing prices, particularly in less-than-premium locations.

This is a stark contrast to the property bubble era of the 1970s and 1980s, when land and homes were prohibitively expensive even in distant suburbs. Today, land in Japan is cheaper than in most developed nations, especially when comparing quality, durability, and safety standards.

Japanese Homes: Low Price, High Quality

Japan is known for high construction standards and resilience in housing. A home built in the 1980s or 1990s in Japan is often far more structurally sound than one built in the same era in many developing countries. Earthquake-resistant design, durable materials, and meticulous maintenance culture contribute to this.

Now, these well-built homes are available at steep discounts. Even in Tokyo, unsold apartments are increasing, and many remain on the market for months due to shrinking demand and tight lending standards. This trend is creating excellent buying opportunities, especially for those planning to live in Japan long term.

What Stays Expensive?

The only areas that remain consistently high-priced are those with truly prime locations—typically within a 5-minute walk from a major train station in central districts. These locations continue to attract interest due to convenience and limited availability.

In other parts of the cities, especially where access to transportation is less ideal, prices are dropping or stagnating—even in neighborhoods that were once considered elite.

Where to Look: Tips for Smart Property Seekers

If you’re open to renovation and suburban living, there are incredible deals to be found. For example:

• Older wooden homes (built 30+ years ago) in the outer suburbs of Tokyo, Kanagawa, or Saitama can sometimes be purchased for as little as 1.8 million yen (around 14,000 USD).

• These may be around 50 square meters, with a garden or parking space, and just 60–75 minutes by train to central Tokyo.

• Renovation costs can vary, but with a careful budget, modernizing a home for under 10 million yen (75,000 USD) is possible.

For a more ready-to-live or new property, a budget of 30 million yen (around 280,000 USD) can get you a modern condominium or townhouse within Tokyo’s 23 wards or just outside, depending on the area and proximity to stations.

High-End Bargains

The luxury property segment has also cooled—especially in overpriced districts like Roppongi, Aoyama, and Omotesando where properties far from stations are no longer appreciating. However, truly premium properties within 1–2 minutes of a station in major or suburban hubs still retain value and sell well.

In June 2025, data shows:

• Prices are falling in Tokyo’s central wards, but rising in places like Saitama and Chiba due to targeted redevelopment and migration of high-income households.

• The average price per new condo unit in Tokyo’s 23 wards is over 90 million yen, but actual contract rates are dropping, signaling less buyer confidence in the core luxury market.

• Meanwhile, more modest but well-located new builds in surrounding prefectures are gaining traction, especially among young families and dual-income professionals.

Japan’s real estate market is undergoing a quiet transformation. With population decline, excess inventory, and shifting lifestyle preferences, housing is more accessible than ever before—especially for those with long-term plans in the country.

Whether you are a resident looking for a first home, or an investor seeking long-term value, Japan’s real estate in 2025 offers rare opportunities in both price and quality—if you know where to look.

There are millions of real estate agencies in Japan. But they all use the same database called Reins to find a property. The difference is the quite basic quality: honesty and fast response.  It is quite rare that one particular agency has more information than others in terms of the property info. Of course, the local agency close to the property tends to have more back ground information which is important for evaluation.

In our view, you only find a great deal in non public deals. We work with the agencies with confidential information.  If you are serious about buying real estates in Japan, you can contact us! You find all info here! We introduce real estates in Japan which are not public. We help you find and own properties in Japan.

As above, all real estates use the same data base. This means that good property shall be gone in a matter of second. The information you find online are already old (sometimes not good because they are not slow to sell) You need a careful analysis of the potential purchase but you also need to be very fast to decide.

Most of Japanese buy property on load as long as over 30 years or so. As a foreigner, you are not entitled to housing loan in Japan. You just need to prepare all cash to pay. In all cases for property purchases in Japan, foreign customers paid in cash.  

This way the seller and agency are also comfortable dealing with you. 

Japan has many natural disasters and also Fukushima nuclear problems. It is relatively safe and clean country compared to most of the countries around the world (as Europe is also not safe any more). Yet, property in Japan is not free from any problem. Japan faces many types of natural disasters. The natural disasters include earthquake, typhoons, big rain, big snow. When you buy properties, you need to pay attention to these topics and make sure enough countermeasure is taken. 

Is Real Estate in Japan Still Affordable in 2025?

Yes—Japanese real estate remains surprisingly affordable, especially when compared to other developed countries. The combination of population decline, aging infrastructure, and regional revitalization efforts has created rare opportunities for long-term residents, investors, and those seeking a lifestyle change.

Having lived in and visited numerous countries, we believe Japan offers a unique value proposition: high-quality construction, excellent public services, and safety—at a relatively low cost. But while the deals exist, they are not always easy to find. Successful buyers are those who do their research, work with trustworthy local professionals, and stay patient.

In fact, the movement toward relocation is accelerating.

Young families and professionals are increasingly interested in relocating to regional cities, driven by disillusionment with unstable urban employment and growing appreciation for quality of life in smaller communities. Suburban hubs within 1.5 hours from Tokyo, such as Karuizawa, Utsunomiya, Odawara, and Maebashi, are seeing steady demand.

At the same time, major redevelopment projects in urban centers are reshaping the high-end market. In Tokyo, flagship developments like Takanawa Gateway City, Blue Front Shibaura, and Torch Tower at Tokyo Station are setting new benchmarks for urban living and pushing demand around key transport nodes. These areas are being transformed into next-generation smart hubs, blending residential, commercial, and green spaces, supported by advanced infrastructure such as water transport in Tokyo Bay and improved train access.

Meanwhile, in Osaka, the 2025 Expo (Osaka-Kansai Expo) is already creating momentum. While past expos (such as EXPO '70 and Aichi Expo 2005) boosted land values in surrounding areas, the real challenge is sustaining growth post-event. Neighborhoods near Yumeshima Island, the main venue, are likely to benefit in the short term, but long-term value depends on meaningful post-Expo development and infrastructure planning.

For those asking, “Is it a good time to buy in Japan?”—the answer is yes, with conditions. If you're looking for a long-term residence, a vacation home, or a strategic investment, Japan's market offers unmatched quality per yen—especially outside the most premium zones. Whether you're considering a 30-year-old wooden house in suburban Saitama for 1.8 million yen, or a newly developed condo just 5 minutes from a Tokyo station for under 30 million yen, the key is location, renovation strategy, and long-term vision.

Japan’s real estate market in 2025 is not just affordable—it’s evolving. And those who understand both the social and economic forces shaping it are in a prime position to benefit.

Interested? If so, we deal with Non-public Japanese real estates with many cool properties, just let us know.

Source: Nikkei news, Mainichi news, Asahi news, Japanese Government official website

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